I certainly have been lazy lately. A blog is supposed to be updated regularly, but you cannot accuse me of having done that.

A difficult question at Sputnik + 50
However, the recent 50-year anniversary of the launch of Sputnik has kept me busy. It is interesting how space activities are still regarded as part of “modernity”. Journalists have asked me questions like “what is the next revolutionary application of space technology”? What do you answer?

Maybe: “We could use it to look for Life Elsewhere in the Universe..?”

Well, they have heard that before, so even if finding Life Elsewhere would be the crowning achievement of any technology, the reporters keep asking. It surprises me that “space” is still not regarded as “mainstream”, but an activity at the “leading edge” instead of the “trailing edge” of human endeavours. As a space cadet I naturally agree, but still…fifty years is a long time.

So, what do I answer? Well, all the applications we see today were invented or started in embryonic form during the very first years of the space age. Telecom, navigation, weather, reconnaissance satellites – such satellites were really launched, albeit primitive, during the first four years of the space age.

So, space tourism is the only really new strongly developing application of space technology that I can see in the near future. Of course there are exotic applications like Solar Power Satellites to feed our ever-hungry power grids, but the “establishment threshold” of such facilities is very high – much higher than for space tourism. To establish space-based power generation systems a gigantic amount of capital must be collected and the decision-making process involves nation states and not corporations. Corporations usually take decisions more promptly than nations because they have a narrower focus!

Mixing high and low
For the orthodox space cadets mixing a grand purpose such as finding Life Elsewhere with mundane tasks as sending tourists aloft is an abomination. But such is life – the computer graphics developed by kids’ computer games find uses in medical technology and save life. Space technology is an enabling technology for many purposes. Let’s cheer and not sulk.

Of course, in this day and age, thinkers and space enthusiasts appear that advocate neo-liberal free-market strategies to develop space. By deregulating space activities the all-powerful market forces can be unleashed and make space activities prosper, is their message. Often, this credo is accompanied by a scathing criticism of NASA as bureaucratic, unimaginative, conservative…”NASA-bashing” in short. In areas such as space tourism the free-enterprise solution is most certainly the key to progress – NASA uses its astronauts as heroes (even though the Space Shuttle for a while has reduced them from the Apollo-era explorers to truck drivers) and a plethora of picture-taking holiday-makers aboard the ISS or a private space hotel in orbit would make NASA’s heroes look less heroic and possibly reduce political support for NASA’s budget… Even the prospect of sending tourists around the Moon (of which there is talk) could have that effect. So, NASA is not the right agent for developing space tourism, I am sure.

Market forces in space
But some activities in space have no classical market of demand and supply. Space research and exploration of the Moon and Mars still is something the taxpayer will have to finance despite all the hype about commercial mining operations on the Moon. Of course the government could “outsource” the actual operation of space vehicles to commercial companies – and this is already happening, but the taxpayer still foots the bill.

Space vehicles for practical purposes should rather be regarded as infrastructure. On the ground there are both publicly owned infrastructure and privately owned infrastructure. In each case governments regulate the design and operation of this infrastructure. The same is true in space.

Navigation satellites are public infrastructure while telecom satellites are both private and public. These two applications concern the ordinary person directly and still privatization is not dominating the picture. Of course the explanation is quite straightforward: there are simple ways of charging telecom satellite users, while the users of navigation satellites are harder to charge – especially since GPS established the free-service style. The problems of establishing a Private-Public-Partnership for Europe’s Galileo navigation satellite system is a case in point – I think.

Observations satellites certainly do not have a revenue stream that could support their development and launch on purely commercial terms. Indeed the governments have “outsourced” some of the intelligence-collection to private companies, but still the taxpayer pays most earth observations satellites directly from her/his pocket.

So, infrastructure is an arena for governments – also in space. The infrastructure of space affects many strategic functions in society and that is why we still have space agencies to secure access to such infrastructure. However, activities “downstream” of the space segment are very much an area of normal market forces – selling satellite TV dishes, GPS navigators, Google Earth pictures etc. – and in that arena governments do not play much of a role.

Would deregulation help in expanding the role of free enterprise in the infrastructure of space? Hard to say. A recent article in the on-line magazine “The Space Review” argues that space is not much regulated at all and that the airline industry is much more regulated. I tend to agree. People often ask me if it is necessary to get “permission” to launch a satellite. When I answer “no” there is surprise.

What I should have written about
I had planned to write something with the title “The Rocket Equation is a harsh mistress”, dealing with the realities of creating a ballistic space tourism vehicle – but that will have to wait. Anyhow, I would like to lead  you to some new toys of mine – satellite tracking on S-band without a big tracking dish. Here is the account – only for real nerds!